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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been lighting up the NFL since returning from his early-season suspension, emerging as a top MVP candidate despite missing four games.The 39-year-old Brady ranks first overall in Total QBR, and has helped cast the Patriots in the role of most likely Super Bowl champion, at 32 percent according to ESPNs Football Power Index. That said, the data says New England should be thinking very long and hard about looking elsewhere to fill the starting QB role next season.The Patriots, more than any other team, have made a habit of paying for likely future production and not past success. And though Bradys contract would make it difficult for them to merely part ways (more on that in a minute), at 39 years old they undoubtedly know whats coming for Brady.Two of the most dominant quarterbacks of the past 20 years -- Brett Favre and Peyton Manning -- are, in fact, useful examples to project Bradys performance in the next few seasons. Favre, Manning and Kurt Warner join Brady in a rare group of players that even make it to this stage. Average quarterbacks rarely get a chance to continue to play past their mid-30s; once they show signs of decline, theyre replaced. What remains are the Favres, Peytons and Warners (and even Warner stepped away at the age of 38) of the NFL, great quarterbacks who can continue to rely on their ability to run an offense and take advantage of defenses, even as their deep throws lose a little of their zip. But even the greats will eventually fall, as the numbers demonstrate.Bradys performance at age 38 and up to his current age of 39.5 mirrors that of Manning at the same age. Brady has posted an average QBR of 70 during those years -- Mannings was 69. After age 39.5, however, Mannings performance declined sharply. For all of his games after the age of 39.5, he posted an average QBR of 49. The decline was part of a broader, ominous trend for Brady and older QBs.ESPN senior analytics specialist Brian Burke detailed this drop-off in a study for Advanced Football Analytics.All QBs who played when they were 38 years old had QBRs above 70 in between 50 and 70 percent of their games. By age 40, their chance of posting a QBR above 70 drops to below 5 percent. This is the range Brady will be in at the start of the 2017 season.Availability becomes a major issue as well.Again, looking at the group of QBs who were playing at the ages of 39 and 39.5, this group has a 71 percent chance of playing at least 10 more games. Once they get past 40 (where Brady will be when the 2017 season starts), that percentage drops by half. Only 35 percent who are playing past the age of 39.5 will play 10 or more games.Given the Patriots history of shedding iconic players (Lawyer Milloy, Logan Mankins, Randy Moss and Richard Seymour, to name a few), it shouldnt be a surprise if Brady is next on the chopping block, though his contract could give New England some pause. The Patriots tend to release or trade players at or near the end of their contracts so there is minimal, if any, dead money on the salary cap. But remember that Brady signed a new contract during this past offseason that included a $28 million bonus. By NFL cap rules, if the Patriots cut Brady after this season, they would carry a cap charge of $27 million -- nearly twice the price tag for keeping him ($14 million).That reality means, should Bradys performance decline as the data nearly guarantees it will, Patriots coach Bill Belichick could find himself in the difficult position of benching Brady for a younger arm. While Belichick has never been accused of being overly emotional about his roster decisions, there should be little doubt that the notion of benching Brady would be an especially delicate situation for the organization and its fan base.Whatever they decide, there is no reason to believe that Brady has the ability to beat the overwhelming trend of aging QBs. Father Time, as they say, is undefeated.For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.? Discount Adidas Superstar . P.A. Parenteau scored early in the third period to help the Avs edge Toronto 2-1 on Tuesday night. Cory Sarich also scored for Colorado (3-0-0), which is off to its best ever start. Adidas Superstar Black Mens Sale .com) - The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks both take aim at their first wins of the season on Saturday, as the Canucks open their home slate at Rogers Arena. http://www.wholesalefashionsuperstar.com/ . -- Golden State Warriors coach Mark Jackson asked his players a simple question during Fridays morning shootaround: How many of them had ever been on a team 14 games over . Cheap Adidas Superstar Womens . Los Angeles star goalie survived those perilous gymnastics with no problem, and he eventually backstopped the Kings to a skid-snapping win. Quick stopped 27 shots in his return from a 24-game injury absence, Jeff Carter scored the tiebreaking goal with 7:55 to play, and the Kings snapped their five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night. Adidas Superstar Cheapest Price . Anthony Calvillo, through 20 CFL seasons, was frequently invincible and largely stoic in the heat of competition. But underneath the professional exterior he was, and is, compellingly human. RIO DE JANEIRO -- Maybe having pros box in the Olympics isnt such a bad idea after all.While theyre at it, they might start getting some professional judges, too.A lot of what is still wrong with Olympic boxing was exposed in the heavyweight gold medal fight Monday night, when Russias Evgeny Tischenko was handed an inexplicable decision win over Vassiliy Levit of Kazakhstan in a fight that was almost as ugly as the scoring.That it came with the head of the International Olympic Committee in attendance couldnt have been good for the future of the sport. Boxing has had a rocky road in the Olympics recently, and Thomas Bach couldnt have been happy with what he saw as boos cascaded down when the unanimous decision was announced.Had Bach stuck around for the medal ceremony he would have heard even more boos, as fans expressed their displeasure once again. Standing on the medal podium, Levit put his finger to his lips in an unsuccessful attempt to stop fans from booing Tischenko as he was given the gold medal.This was supposed to be an Olympic boxing competitcoion like no other, with the men shedding headgear and the judging converted to the same type of 10-point must system used in the pro ranks. Pros were also invited to compete, although they were included so late that only three journeymen fighters signed up and all were drummed out of the competition before the first week was over.Up until the heavyweight final it had all worked fairly well. Without headgear, fans were able to see the faces of fighters, and the new scoring forced fighters to actually get into scraps instead of trying to land pitty-pat punches one at a time from the outside.The only real downside was a big increase in cuts without headgear, some of which caused competitive fights to be stopped early. That happened a few fights earlier Monday when Daniyar Yeleussinov of Kazakhstan was cut in the second round against Souleymane Cissokho of France in their welterweight semifinal.Still, boxing seemed like boxing again, a contrast to previous Olympics when headgear and a computer scoring system that awarded points for touches turned it into something more akin to fencing with gloves.The old system was put into place to get away from scoring controversies in the wake of the horrendous decision that cost Roy Jones Jr. his gold medal against a hometown fighter in Korea in 1988.dddddddddddd But judges pushing buttons seemed to get even more decisions wrong, and there was a time where the sports very future in the games was in jeopardy.Just what the three judges scoring the heavyweight final saw to award this fight to Tischenko wasnt exactly clear. Levit forced the fight, getting inside against his taller opponent and smothering his punches. It wasnt pretty by any means and neither fighter looked particularly skilled, but it was clear to almost anyone in the arena that Levit had done enough to win the fight.That included the fighter himself, who was confident right up until the decision was announced that he had won the biggest fight of his life.In my head I was thinking I won, Levit said. The coaches were quite happy.The crowd booed lustily at the decision, and kept booing long after the fighters had left the ring. The boos got louder during the medal ceremony, when Tischenko should have been enjoying his time in the spotlight.Im really upset about it, Tischenko said through an interpreter afterward. I respect my opponent and the crowd. I cannot know why they booed.If there was an Olympic moment to be taken from the night, it was the gesture of sportsmanship by Levit as the boos kept coming. He put his finger to his lips to try and silence the crowd, though with little success.Every fighter that comes to the ring deserves respect, Levit said.Boxing history, of course, is littered with decisions gone bad. Judging fights is more art than science, and what one judge sees another might not even notice.Incompetence can also play a part. So can favoring fighters for reasons other than what they do in the ring.None of that really mattered to Tischenko, who ended the night with a gold medal around his neck in an Olympics he wasnt sure he would even be in as Russia faced a possible ban for doping.They gave victory to me so there were some reasons for it, Tischenko said.Too bad no one was able to explain just what those reasons were.----Tim Dahlberg is a national sports columnist for The Associated Press. Write to him at tdahlberg(at)ap.org or http://twitter.com/timdahlberg ' ' '